Journal of Geology & Geophysics
Open Access

Geophysical and Tectonic Data for a Probabilistic Long-Term Volcano Hazard Prediction

Desheng Liu^{* *}Correspondence: Desheng Liu, Department of Geography & Statistics, The Ohio State University, Ohio, USA, Email:

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Description

Volcanic eruptions can have significant impacts on human lives and infrastructure. Accurate estimation of volcanic hazard is, therefore, essential for risk assessment and mitigation. Probabilistic assessment of long-term volcanic hazard requires the assimilation of various geophysical and tectonic data. The methodology and results of probabilistic long-term volcanic hazard assessment based on the assimilation of geophysical and tectonic data will be discussed.

Volcanic eruptions can cause significant damage to human lives, infrastructure, and the environment. Therefore, accurate estimation of volcanic hazard is critical for risk assessment and mitigation. The long-term hazard of a volcano is determined by various factors, such as the frequency and magnitude of past eruptions, the size and type of the volcano, the geological structure of the area, and tectonic activity. Probabilistic estimation of long-term volcanic hazard requires the assimilation of geophysical and tectonic data.

The probabilistic estimation of long-term volcanic hazard involves the development of a mathematical model that incorporates various geophysical and tectonic data. The model calculates the probability of future volcanic events based on past volcanic activity and geological features. The following geophysical and tectonic data are typically used in probabilistic estimation of long-term volcanic hazard:

1. Past eruption history: The frequency and magnitude of past eruptions are essential indicators of the long-term hazard of a volcano. The past eruption history is typically compiled from geological and historical records.

2. Volcano size and type: The size and type of a volcano are critical factors that affect its potential hazard. Larger and more explosive volcanoes have a higher long-term hazard than smaller and less explosive ones.

3. Geological structure: The geological structure of the area surrounding a volcano affects the potential hazard. For example, a volcano located in a densely populated area is more hazardous than one located in an unpopulated area.

4. Tectonic activity: Tectonic activity, such as earthquakes and fault movements, can trigger volcanic eruptions. Therefore, tectonic data are essential for long-term volcanic hazard assessment.

The assimilation of these data into a probabilistic model involves the use of Bayesian statistics. Bayesian statistics is a powerful tool for estimating probabilities based on prior knowledge and new data. In the context of long-term volcanic hazard assessment, Bayesian statistics are used to update the prior probability of volcanic events based on new geophysical and tectonic data.

The probabilistic estimation of long-term volcanic hazard has been applied to various volcanoes worldwide. For example, probabilistic hazard assessment has been conducted for Mount Fuji in Japan, Mount Vesuvius in Italy, and Mount Rainier in the United States. The results of these assessments indicate that the long-term hazard of a volcano can vary significantly based on the assimilation of geophysical and tectonic data. For example, the hazard of Mount Fuji was found to be higher than previously estimated due to the assimilation of new tectonic data.

Probabilistic estimation of long-term volcanic hazard is essential for risk assessment and mitigation. The assimilation of geophysical and tectonic data into a mathematical model provides a more accurate assessment of the long-term hazard of a volcano. Bayesian statistics is a powerful tool for updating the probability of volcanic events based on new data. The results of probabilistic hazard assessments indicate that the long-term hazard of a volcano can vary significantly based on the assimilation of geophysical and tectonic data. Therefore, continued monitoring and data assimilation are necessary for accurate long-term volcanic hazard assessment.