Journal of Hotel and Business Management
Open Access

Solar Activity as a Potential Predictor of Hotel Occupancy Rates: A Novel Interdisciplinary Approach

Author info »

Introduction

The hospitality industry, is an important component of the USA economy, experiences periodic fluctuations in occupancy rates. Conventional explanations for these variations typically involve economic cycles, technological advancements, changing travel trends, global events and demographic shifts.

However, this study posits that these observable trends may be underpinned by a more fundamental driver: The cyclical nature of solar activity.

Description

Theoretical framework

Solar activity follows a well-documented 11-year cycle, characterized by variations in solar radiation, sunspot activity and the frequency and intensity of solar flares and coronal mass ejections.

These phenomena induce geomagnetic disturbances on Earth, which have been associated with various physiological and psychological effects in humans, including individual behavioral ones as those that may lead to homicides and collective behavioral ones, as in those that lead to recessions [1-4].

The central hypothesis of this study is that geomagnetic disturbances, stemming from solar activity, may trigger subtle yet measurable changes in human moods and behaviors. These changes could influence individuals’ propensity for leisure activities, including travel, thereby affecting hotel occupancy rates on a broad scale (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Hotel occupancy rate estimation for hotel business.

This study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative analysis of historical solar activity data, geomagnetic disturbance records and hotel occupancy rates over a two-decade period. Additionally, a qualitative review of existing literature on the physiological and psychological effects of geomagnetic activity provides context for the potential mechanisms of influence.

The research also draws upon socionomic theory as a potential explanatory framework for how individual responses to geomagnetic disturbances might manifest as collective behavioral trends. However, socionomics is not central to the argument but rather serves as one possible mechanism through which solar-induced geomagnetic effects might propagate through populations.

The potential predictive power of this model represents its most compelling aspect. If a robust correlation can be established between solar activity cycles, geomagnetic disturbances and hotel occupancy rates, it could provide a novel tool for long-term forecasting in the hospitality industry and revolutionize long-term strategic planning for hotels, resorts and travel-related businesses. The relatively predictable nature of solar cycles could enable projections of occupancy trends far in advance of traditional economic indicators (Video 1).

Conclusion

This study presents a novel approach to understanding and potentially predicting hotel occupancy rates by considering the influence of cosmic phenomena on human behavior and economic trends. While acknowledging the need for rigorous empirical validation, this research underscores the importance of exploring unconventional perspectives in an increasingly complex and interconnected world. It invites further investigation into the possibility that the keys to understanding and predicting economic trends may lie not just in traditional economic indicators, but also in the broader cosmic environment in which human activity takes place.

References

1. Zilli Vieira CL, Alvares D, Blomberg A, Schwartz J, Coull B, Huang S, et al. Geomagnetic disturbances driven by solar activity enhance total and cardiovascular mortality risk in 263 US cities. Environ Health. 2019;18:1-0.

   [Crossref] [Google Scholar] [PubMed]

2. Atwater P. Moods and markets: A new way to invest in good times and in bad. FT Press. 2013.

   [Google Scholar]

3. Behrens A, Beltrão KI, D’Almeida AL. The impact of space weather on social dynamics: Homicide trends in Canada and the USA. ANPL. 2024;5(2):180061.
4. Gorbanev M. Sunspots, unemployment, and recessions, or can the solar activity cycle shape the business cycle? MPRA.2012;6(9):102163.

   [Google Scholar]