ISSN: 2332-0761
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Research Article - (2018) Volume 6, Issue 4
Elections are a social phenomenon that enables the society to promote good leadership which is an important dynamic process that reflects the credibility and validity of political agendas. The motive of this evaluation is to present with a preassessment on the political situation of Sialkot city for the General Elections 2018. Past statistical profile reveals the prolonged domination of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) throughout the series of past few elections, but the momentous development of Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) is considered to be defaming the former. Facts and figures of political ground of Sialkot have been collected and systematically organized by use of valid Statistical approaches of higher confidence level. A precisely structured questionnaire containing characteristic and confined ten questions regarding political choices was circulated within the different Union Councils for collecting data of subset of 5700 people. Data was manipulated using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) and it came out to be reliable with the value 0.703 of Cronbach's Alpha. The overall results indicates preference of people to PMLN 12.1% more than as compared to PTI, only few Union Councils (UC) such as Model Town, Mubarak Pura, Rung Pura, Haji Pura, Talwara-Mughlan and Bonkin shows increased drift of 3.4%, 6.8%, 4.7%, 6.3%, 36.8% and 27.8% respectively to PTI in contrast to PML-N and the study also suggests that the literates of the community shows the rising trend towards PTI.
Keywords: Dynamic; Political state; National assembly; Provisional assembly; Union councils
An election is a process in which people vote to choose a person or group of people to hold an official position. Nations are awarded with the sign of democracy and attribute of the freedom by acknowledging their opinion in selection of major parties and authorities at significant positions of country [1]. Democratic nations run for the kind of Govt. that will safeguard all their interests. Therefore, the elected leaders have a responsibility of ensuring that the country is run in the most efficient way which brings about prosperity [2]. British inaugurated the election system in the beginning of 1900s by introducing the seats in legislative assemblies of India after invading the southern part of Asia in 19th century [3]. After the independence both the countries i.e. Pakistan (East and West) and India propagated the system initiated by British rule [4].
There are several types of elections e.g. Presidential [5], parliamentary election on [6] high Govt. level or private and local body election for authorities and other leadership positions. Education systems also apply election decision-making to provide equal opportunities to express their opinions for the students. There are some elections make decision based over the majority, few require agreement from all the participants, most common in cases where a number of voters do not exceed ten people respectively.
Modern elections have greatly contributed to the development of new demographic and social sub-subject that deals with the analysis of the logic of various social communities in their decision-making process and preferences creation.
Election is decision-making process rooted in ancient Greece and Rome. It serves as the major mechanism for choice of Emperors and other leading figures in the history. Since approximately 508 B.C., Ancient Greece seems to have implemented the earliest form of democracy. Each year the male land owner voters were asked to vote for most wanted political leader or "candidates" they to be exiled for the next ten years. If any "candidate" received more than 6,000 votes than the one with the largest number was exiled. If no politician received 6,000 votes then they all remained. Since voters were only male land owners, although the number of voters was small. The rules that apply to eligible voters has changed dramatically since 1776, when it was pronounced although all men are created equally, but that equality only applied to some. Only white men over the age of 21 were allowed to vote when America was young [7]. Modern election systems in different countries vary in minor aspects, but in the majority of cases they provide a choice or even make it a requirement for each adult citizen of the country to vote for one or another candidate [8]. Likewise Pakistan’s political sketch has seen certain and uncertain drags during these past 71 years of its independence. Total of 10 General Elections at the Federal level have been held from 1970s till 2013 producing tremendous changes in economic and social life of Pakistan. A lot of predication on political situations is made on statistical grounds [9]. The motive of this study circulates around assessment of political status of different parties within the city of Sialkot [10].
A pilot study [11] was conducted on the total of 5700 samples selected through cluster sampling to assess the political aspect in the city of Sialkot, for the approaching elections of 2018. An administrative revolution has been observed in the country due to the emergence of PTI as a significant party in the elections of 2013 [12]. The following result enlightens on the general people’s perspective from different Union Councils (UC) towards the upcoming elections. Names of Union Councils taken into account are as follows: (Tables 1-3).
Sr. No. | General Election(s) | Date of Conduction | Major Parties | Winning party | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Assembly (NA) | Provincial Assembly (PP) | ||||||
1 | 1970 | 7 Dec. 1970 | 17 Dec.1970 | Awami League+ | PPP | PDP | Awami League(east), PPP(west) |
2 | 1977 | 07-Mar-77 | 07-Mar-77 | PML-Qayyum | PNA++ | PPP | PPP |
3 | 1985 | 25 Feb. 1985 | 28 Feb. 1985 | Non-Party Elections+++ [10] | General Zia-ul-Haq | ||
4 | 1988* | 16 Nov.1988 | 19 Nov. 1988 | Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI) | PPP | PPP | |
5 | 1990 | 24 Nov. 1990 | 27 Nov. 1990 | IJI | PPP/PDA | Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI) | |
6 | 1993 | 6 Oct. 1993 | 9 Oct. 1993 | PML(N) | PPP | PPP | |
7 | 1997** | 03-Feb-97 | 03-Feb-97 | PML(N) | PPP | PML(N) | |
8 | 2002*** | 10 Oct. 2002 | 10 Oct. 2002 | PML(N) | PPP | PML(Q) | PML(Q) |
9 | 2008 | 18 Feb. 2008 | 18 Feb. 2008 | PML(N) | PPP | PPP | |
10 | 2013**** | 11-May-13 | 11-May-13 | PML(N) | PTI | PPP | PML(N) |
+Awami League was the leading party in East Pakistan, winning in NA by majority, in the elections of 1970.
++PNA abbreviated as Pakistan National Alliance was composed of nine political parties.
+++Elections were held without any major parties under the pressure of MRD (Movement for the Restoration of Democracy) which led as a platform for many new politicians without any formal background of politics to enter NA and PP.
*Decline turnout of voters of about 42.7% was observed from the previous elections.
**For the first time National and Provincial Assembly Elections were held on same date. PTI was formed a year before by Imran Khan and participated in the elections (1997) for the first time.
***Voter’s population was increased due to reduction in voter’s age from 18 onwards and seats were increased in same ratio from 207 to 272.
****Total of six political parties emerged on the front foot of these elections namely as MQM, ANP, PML and the three mentioned above.
Table 1: Election dates of National Assembly and Provincial Assembly from Years 1970-2013.
Sr. No. | Year of General Elections | Total Seats | Seats Contribute by Punjab | Party with Highest Posts | Party with 2nd Highest Posts | Party with 3rd Highest Posts | Party with 4th Highest Posts | Party with 5th Highest Posts |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1970 | 300 | 62 | PPP | CML | CVML | QML | JUP |
2 | 1977 | 200 | 115 | PPP | PNA | Others | Independent | |
3 | 1985 | Transition from Material Law to “ Oversight by Military’’ | ||||||
4 | 1988 | 206 | 115 | PPP/PDA | PML(N)/IJI | Independent | All others | |
5 | 1990 | 204 | 115 | PML(N)/IJI | PPP | Independent | All others | |
6 | 1993 | 206 | 116 | PML(N) | PPP | Independent | PML (others) | |
7 | 1997 | 206 | 115 | PML(N) | Independent | |||
8 | 2002 | 272 | 150 | PML(Q) | PPP | PML(N)/Independent/All others | ||
9 | 2008 | 271 | 150 | PML(N) | PPP | PML(Q) | Independent | All others |
10 | 2013 | 262 | 148 | PML(N) | Independent | PTI | All others | PML |
Table 2: Ranking of Political Parties in Punjab from Years 1970-2013.
Sr. No. | General Election | National Assembly Seat | Area | Leading Party | Overall Result | Leading Minister | Votes | Runner up Party | Runner up Minister |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1970 | NW-74 | Sialkot-I | PPP | PPP | Mian Masood Ahmad | 93,736 | MJUP | M. Alam |
NW-75 | Sialkot-II | PPP | Molana Kausar Niazi | 96,132 | MJUP | M. Ahmad | |||
NW-76 | Sialkot-III | PPP | Ch. Nasarullah Khan | 83,266 | MJUP | Abdul Wahid | |||
NW-77 | Sialkot-IV | PPP | Malik M. Suleman, Adv | 23,542 | MJUP | Ch. Abdul Rahim | |||
NW-78 | Sialkot-V | PPP | Ch. Sultan Ahmad Cheema | 82,609 | MJUP | M. Saeed | |||
2 | 1977 | NA-104 | Sialkot-I | PPP | PPP | Qazi Zakauddin | 67,088 | PNA | Kh. M. Sardar |
NA-105 | Sialkot-II | PPP | Mian Masood Ahmad | 83,859 | PNA | Ch. Nasiruddin | |||
NA-106 | Sialkot-III | PPP | Ch. Sultan Ahmad | 73,648 | PNA | Mazoor Ahmad | |||
NA-107 | Sialkot-IV | PPP | Kausar Niazi | 78,805 | PNA | Asadullah Khan Bajwa | |||
NA-108 | Sialkot-V | PPP | Hamid Nawaz Khan | 90,775 | PNA | Kh. M. Iqbal Butt | |||
3 | 1985 | NA-109 | Sialkot-VI | PPP | Ghulam Sarwar Khan, Adv | 68,342 | PNA | Barak Allah Khan | |
NA-110 | Sialkot-VII | PPP | Anwar Aziz Ch | 1,02,334 | PNA | M. Salman | |||
NA-104 | Sialkot-I | PML-N | Khawaja M. Safdar | 41,987 | Naeem-ur-Rehman | ||||
NA-105 | Sialkot-II | PML-Q | Ch. Amir Hussain | 23,415 | M. Rashid Akhtar | ||||
NA-106 | Sialkot-III | PPP | Muhammad Akram Khan | 43,971 | Nazir Ahmad Khan | ||||
NA-107 | Sialkot-IV | Sahibzada Prof. M. Ahmad | 55,626 | Abdul Sattar | |||||
NA-108 | Sialkot-V | PPP | Ch. M. Sarwar Khan | 56,368 | Ch. M. Akbar Kahloon | ||||
4 | 1988 | NA-109 | Sialkot-VI | PML-N | IJI | Ch. Shafaat Ahmad Khan | 43,240 | Anwar-ul-Haq Ch. | |
NA-110 | Sialkot-VII | PPP | Mr. Anwar Aziz chaudhr | 58,538 | M. Idrees Taj | ||||
NA-85 | Sialkot-I | IJI | Mian Muhamamd Shafi | 59902 | PPP | Akhtar Javed Pirzada | |||
NA-86 | Sialkot-II | IJI | Amir Hussain | 58545 | PPP | Faiz Ahmad | |||
NA-87 | Sialkot-III | PPP | Khurshid Alam | 52676 | IJI | Nazir Ahmad Khan | |||
NA-88 | Sialkot-IV | IJI | Mian M. Nawaz Sharif | 45271 | PDP | Ch. Asdullah Hajwa | |||
NA-89 | Sialkot-V | PPP | Alhaj Hamid Nawaz Khan | 32201 | IJI | Ch. M. Sarwar Khan | |||
5 | 1990 | NA-90 | Sialkot-VI | IJI | IJI | Chaudhary Anwar ul Haq | 43901 | PPP | Ghulam Sarwar Khan |
NA-91 | Sialkot-VII | IJI | Chaudhary Anwar Aziz | 31621 | PPP | Muhammad Idress Taj | |||
NA-85 | Sialkot-I | IJI | Mian Muhammad Shafi | 59515 | PDA | Mian Masud Ahmad | |||
NA-86 | Sialkot-II | IJI | Chaudhary Ameer Hussain | 67731 | PDA | Mian M.Rasheed Akhtar | |||
NA-87 | Sialkot-III | IJI | Nazir Ahmad Khan | 81137 | PDA | Javaid Ghuman | |||
NA-88 | Sialkot-IV | IJI | Chaudhary Abdul Sattar | 72764 | PDA | Muhammad Ahmad | |||
NA-89 | Sialkot-V | IJI | Ch. M. Sarwar Khan | 67966 | PDA | Ch. Muhammad Akhtar | |||
NA-90 | Sialkot-VI | IJI | Ghulam Mustafa | 60982 | PDA | Ch. Shafayat Ahmad | |||
NA-91 | Sialkot-VII | IJI | Muhammad Ishfaq Taj | Uncontentested | |||||
6 | 1993 | NA-85 | Sialkot-I | PML-N | Kh. M. Asif | 66,336 | PPP | Mian M. Shafi | |
NA-86 | Sialkot-II | PML-J | Ch. Akhtar Ali | 69,698 | PML-N | Amir Hussain | |||
NA-87 | Sialkot-III | PML-N | Syed Iftikhar-ul-Hassan | 69,559 | PPP | Ijaz Ahmad Cheema | |||
NA-88 | Sialkot-IV | PML-J | Ch. Abdul Sattar | 59,948 | PML-N | Ch. Sikhandar Hayat | |||
NA-89 | Sialkot-cum-Narowal | PML-N | Ch. M. Sarwar Khan | 59,622 | PPP | Zahid Hamid | |||
7 | 1997 | NA-85 | Sialkot-I | PML-N | PML-N | Kh. M. Asif | 64,394 | PPP | M. Naeem-ur-Rehman |
NA-86 | Sialkot-I | PML-N | Amir Hussain | 72,370 | PML-J | Khush Akhtar Subhani | |||
NA-87 | Sialkot-I | PML-N | Syed Iftikhar-ul-Hassan Shah | 71,321 | PPP | Ijaz Ahmad Cheema | |||
8 | 2002 | NA-88 | Sialkot-I | PML-N | PML-Q | Ch. Sikandar Hayat Malhi | 66,203 | PML-J | Ch. Abdul Sattar |
NA-89 | Sialkot-cum-Narowal | PML-N | Ch. M. Sarwar Khan | 59,340 | PPP | M. Akbar Kahloon | |||
NA-110 | Sialkot-I | PMLN | Khawaja Muhammad Aasif | 42700 | PMLQ | Mian Muhammad Riaz | |||
NA-111 | Sialkot-II | PMLQ | Ch. Ameer Hussain | 52300 | PMLN | Idrees Ahmed Bajwa | |||
NA-112 | Sialkot-III | PMLQ | Umer Ahmed Ghumman | 68400 | PMLN | Syed Murtaza Ameen | |||
9 | 2008 | NA-113 | Sialkot-IV | PMLQ | PML-N | Ali Asjad Malhi | 50600 | PPP | Col. R. Sultan Sikandar |
NA-114 | Sialkot-V | PMLQ | Zahid Ahmed Khan | 73500 | PPP | Ghulam Abbas | |||
NA-110 | Sialkot-I | PMLN | Khawaja Muhammad Aasif | 73000 | PPP | Zahid Pervez | |||
NA-111 | Sialkot-II | PPP | Dr. Firdous Aashiq Awan | 78900 | PMLQ | Ch. Ameer Hussain | |||
NA-112 | Sialkot-III | PMLN | Rana Abdul Sattar | 92100 | PMLQ | Ch. Shujaat Huissain | |||
NA-113 | Sialkot-IV | PMLN | Syed Murtaza Amin | 77800 | PMLQ | Ali Asjad Malhi | |||
NA-114 | Sialkot-V | PMLN | Zahid Hamid | 62300 | PMLQ | Ch. Abdul Sattar | |||
10 | 2013 | NA-110 | Sialkot-I | PMLN | PML-N | Khawaja Muhammad Aasif | 92800 | PTI | Muhammad Usman Daar |
NA-111 | Sialkot-II | PMLN | Ch. Armagan Subhani | 137400 | PPP | Dr. Firdous Asshiq Awan | |||
NA-112 | Sialkot-III | PMLN | Rana Shamim Khan | 129500 | PTI | Salma Saif Cheema | |||
NA-113 | Sialkot-IV | PMLN | Syed Iftikhar Ul Hassan | 118200 | PTI | Mirza Abdul Qayyum | |||
NA-114 | Sialkot-V | PMLN | Zahid Hamid | 132600 | Independent | Ghulam Abbas |
Table 3: Ranking of Political Parties in Sialkot from Years 1970-2013.
• Gohat Pur,
• Pakka Ghara,
• Mubarak Pura,
• Bonkin,
• Pasrur,
• Haji Pura,
• Kotli Behram,
• Ahmed-Pura,
• Shah-Syeda,
• Kareem Pura,
• Fattah Garh,
• Rung Pura,
• Pura-Hiran,
• Model Town,
• Water works,
• Adda Pasruriyan,
• Imam Sahab,
• 25-Harar,
• Talwara-Mughlan.
The evaluation is made using the most updated edition of SPSS. Table 4 provides overall frequency percentages of the succeeding questions:
Political Party | Percentage | |
---|---|---|
Which political party are you most inclined to? | PML-N | 48.4 |
PTI | 36.3 | |
PPP | 1.9 | |
JI | 4.6 | |
Others | 8.8 | |
Total | 100 | |
Name of the Members | Percentage | |
Who is your favorite candidate from National Assembly? | Kh. Asif | 47 |
Usman Dar | 37.4 | |
Malik Zarar | 2.3 | |
Others | 13.3 | |
Total | 100 | |
Who is your favorite candidate from Provisional Assembly (PP-36)? | Ch. Akram | 40.9 |
Ch.Ihlaq/Omar Meyer | 36.7 | |
Arshad Baggo | 3.2 | |
Others | 19.3 | |
Total | 100 | |
Who is your favorite candidate from Provisional Assembly (PP-37)? | Kh. Asif/Manshaullah Butt | 43.3 |
Mehar Ashiq Hussain | 33.7 | |
Dr. Tahir Mehmood | 3.5 | |
Others | 19.5 | |
Total | 100 | |
Response | Percentage | |
Are you satisfied with the performance of previous elected party? | Yes | 51.4 |
No | 48.4 | |
Total | 100 |
Table 4: Overall Frequency percentage.
Q1: Which political party are you most inclined to?
Q2: Who is your favorite candidate from National Assembly?
Q3: Who is your favorite candidate from Provisional Assembly (PP-36)?
Q4: Who is your favorite candidate from Provisional Assembly (PP-37)?
Q5: Are you satisfied with the performance of previous elected party
Punjab has always served as a hub for PML-N Govt. according to results of Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) as represented in reference Table 2 but because of the scandal of notorious PANAMA corruptions case [11] involving most prominent political leaders including Sharif family members [12] along with the disqualification of the supreme candidate of PML-N i.e. Khawaja Muhammad Asif , who have been a significant political figure from many of years of the ruling party depicted in results of general elections of ECP as represented in reference Table 3, might be anticipated equally to the success of PTI as it might aid as a turnover [13]. The basic motive of this study is to assess the position of the current ruling party in the city, Sialkot as it is assumed that PTI is imposing threat to their reign in this area (Figure 1).
The given below analysis in Table 5 is made with respect to different Union Councils with regard to the following questions within the premises of Sialkot. 19 Union Councils are discussed in the study.
Union Council | Q1 | Political Party | %age | Q2 | Name of Candidate | %age | Q3 | Satisfaction | %age |
Gohat Pur | PML-N | 44.2 | Kh. Asif | 48.1 | Yes | 54.9 | |||
PTI | 36.5 | Usman Dar | 36.5 | No | 45.1 | ||||
PPP | 3.9 | Malik Zarar | 3.8 | ||||||
JI | 2 | Others | 9.8 | ||||||
Others | 11.8 | ||||||||
Kareem Pura | Q1 | PML-N | 47.1 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 47.1 | Q3 | Yes | 47.1 |
PTI | 23.5 | Usman Dar | 23.5 | No | 52.9 | ||||
PPP | 11.8 | Malik Zarar | 5.9 | ||||||
JI | 5.9 | Others | 23.5 | ||||||
Others | 11.8 | ||||||||
Pakka Ghara | Q1 | PML-N | 71 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 71.1 | Q3 | Yes | 80.6 |
PTI | 22.6 | Usman Dar | 22.5 | No | 19.4 | ||||
PPP | 0 | Malik Zarar | 3.3 | ||||||
JI | 3.2 | Others | 3.1 | ||||||
Others | 3.2 | ||||||||
Fattah Garh | Q1 | PML-N | 46.7 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 46.7 | Q3 | Yes | 46.7 |
PTI | 33.3 | Usman Dar | 36.7 | No | 53.3 | ||||
PPP | 3.3 | Malik Zarar | 0 | ||||||
JI | 0 | Others | 3.1 | ||||||
Others | 16.7 | ||||||||
Mubarak Pura | Q1 | PML-N | 43.2 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 38.6 | Q3 | Yes | 43 |
PTI | 50 | Usman Dar | 54.5 | No | 56.8 | ||||
PPP | 0 | Malik Zarar | 0 | ||||||
JI | 6.8 | Others | 6.8 | ||||||
Others | 0 | ||||||||
Rung Pura | Q1 | PML-N | 42.9 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 47.6 | Q3 | Yes | 36.7 |
PTI | 47.6 | Usman Dar | 38.1 | No | 63.3 | ||||
PPP | 4.8 | Malik Zarar | 4.8 | ||||||
JI | 4.8 | Others | 9.5 | ||||||
Others | 0 | ||||||||
Bonkin | Q1 | PML-N | 27.8 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 27.8 | Q3 | Yes | 41.7 |
PTI | 55.6 | Usman Dar | 61.1 | No | 58.3 | ||||
PPP | 0 | Malik Zarar | 0 | ||||||
JI | 9.7 | Others | 11.1 | ||||||
Others | 6.5 | ||||||||
Pura-Hiran | Q1 | PML-N | 48 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 48 | Q3 | Yes | 64 |
PTI | 24 | Usman Dar | 20 | No | 36 | ||||
PPP | 0 | Malik Zarar | 4 | ||||||
JI | 0 | Others | 28 | ||||||
Others | 28 | ||||||||
Model Town | Q1 | PML-N | 43.3 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 46.7 | Q3 | Yes | 33.3 |
PTI | 46.7 | Usman Dar | 50 | No | 66.7 | ||||
PPP | 0 | Malik Zarar | 0 | ||||||
JI | 3.3 | Others | 3.3 | ||||||
Others | 6.7 | ||||||||
Water Works | Q1 | PML-N | 45.5 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 45.5 | Q3 | Yes | 36.4 |
PTI | 27.3 | Usman Dar | 18.2 | No | 63.6 | ||||
PPP | 9.1 | Malik Zarar | 0 | ||||||
JI | 0 | Others | 36.4 | ||||||
Others | 18.2 | ||||||||
Pasrur | Q1 | PML-N | 64 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 68 | Q3 | Yes | 80 |
PTI | 28 | Usman Dar | 20 | No | 20 | ||||
PPP | 4 | Malik Zarar | 4 | ||||||
JI | 0 | Others | 8 | ||||||
Others | 4 | ||||||||
Adda Pasruriyan | Q1 | PML-N | 48.1 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 48.1 | Q3 | Yes | 51.9 |
PTI | 40.7 | Usman Dar | 37 | No | 48.1 | ||||
PPP | 3.7 | Malik Zarar | 3.7 | ||||||
JI | 3.7 | Others | 11.1 | ||||||
Others | 3.7 | ||||||||
Haji Pura | Q1 | PML-N | 37.5 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 21.9 | Q3 | Yes | 28.1 |
PTI | 43.8 | Usman Dar | 50 | No | 71.9 | ||||
PPP | 0 | Malik Zarar | 6.3 | ||||||
JI | 0 | Others | 21.9 | ||||||
Others | 18.8 | ||||||||
Imam Sahab | Q1 | PML-N | 48.4 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 45.2 | Q3 | Yes | 41.9 |
PTI | 41.9 | Usman Dar | 48.4 | No | 58.1 | ||||
PPP | 0 | Malik Zarar | 0 | ||||||
JI | 3.2 | Others | 6.5 | ||||||
Others | 6.5 | ||||||||
Kotli Behram | Q1 | PML-N | 62.1 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 58.6 | Q3 | Yes | 65.5 |
PTI | 20.7 | Usman Dar | 20.7 | No | 34.5 | ||||
PPP | 0 | Malik Zarar | 0 | ||||||
JI | 0 | Others | 20.7 | ||||||
Others | 17.2 | ||||||||
25-Harar | Q1 | PML-N | 55.6 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 48.1 | Q3 | Yes | 55.6 |
PTI | 14.8 | Usman Dar | 18.5 | No | 44.4 | ||||
PPP | 0 | Malik Zarar | 3.7 | ||||||
JI | 14.8 | Others | 29.6 | ||||||
Others | 14.8 | ||||||||
Ahmed-Pura | Q1 | PML-N | 51.4 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 48.6 | Q3 | Yes | 54.3 |
PTI | 31.4 | Usman Dar | 34.3 | No | 45.7 | ||||
PPP | 0 | Malik Zarar | 0 | ||||||
JI | 0 | Others | 17.1 | ||||||
Others | 17.1 | ||||||||
Muhammad-Pura | Q1 | PML-N | 85 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 80 | Q3 | Yes | 75 |
PTI | 15 | Usman Dar | 20 | No | 25 | ||||
PPP | 0 | Malik Zarar | 0 | ||||||
JI | 0 | Others | 0 | ||||||
Others | 0 | ||||||||
Shah-Syeda | Q1 | PML-N | 55 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 55 | Q3 | Yes | 55 |
PTI | 20 | Usman Dar | 20 | No | 45 | ||||
PPP | 5 | Malik Zarar | 0 | ||||||
JI | 5 | Others | 25 | ||||||
Others | 15 | ||||||||
Talwara-Mughlan | Q1 | PML-N | 31.6 | Q2 | Kh. Asif | 31.6 | Q3 | Yes | 42.1 |
PTI | 68.4 | Usman Dar | 68.4 | No | 57.9 | ||||
PPP | 0 | Malik Zarar | 0 | ||||||
JI | 0 | Others | 0 | ||||||
Others | 0 |
Table 5: Frequency Percentage for Different Union Councils (UC).
Q1: Which political party are you most inclined to?
Q2: Who is your favorite candidate from National Assembly?
Q3: Are you satisfied with the performance of previous elected party?
The Table 6 explicates the favorite political party among different age groups proceeded by its graph. It is observed that the total of 48.4% of voters from different age groups is more influenced by PML-N and that it exceeds PTI by 12.1% with this respect [14]. Graphical precision is given below (Figure 2).
Age Group | Party Name | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
PML-N | PTI | PPP | JI | Others | |
18-33 | 49 | 40 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 6.7 |
34-48 | 45.9 | 31.2 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 12.1 |
49-63 | 49.4 | 34.9 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 10.8 |
>63 | 53.3 | 30 | 0.0 | 10 | 6.7 |
Total | 48.4 | 36.3 | 1.9 | 4.6 | 8.8 |
Table 6: Relationship between age and favorite party (in percentages).
From this study it is noticeable that from the sample an overall percentage of 51.5 are contented from the exercises done by the previous Govt. i.e. PML-N but it is also of concern that the margin between both levels (satisfactory and dissatisfactory) is only 3%. It is realized, from Tables 6 and 7 that age is not playing any role to deviate people from not casting vote to PML-N. The graphical representation of above table is as follows (Figure 3):
Age Group | Satisfaction | |
---|---|---|
Yes | No | |
18-33 | 51.7 | 48.3 |
34-48 | 51 | 49 |
49-63 | 52.4 | 47.6 |
>63 | 50 | 50 |
Overall Satisfaction | 51.5 | 48.5 |
Table 7: Contention of public from PML-N Govt. with regard to age group (in percentages).
From the above Table 8 it is observed that education effects on the selection of a political party. Public with matriculation or less are more inclined towards PML-N whereas it is seemed that the educated society of the country is deviated to PTI whereas rest of the parties does not have much impact. The graphical representation for the above table is as follows (Figure 4):
Education | Party Name | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
PML-N | PTI | PPP | JI | Others | |
Less than Metric | 49.5 | 33.7 | 2 | 3.1 | 11.7 |
Metric | 56.5 | 29 | 1.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
Intermediate | 39.8 | 45.2 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 8.6 |
14 year Education | 42.1 | 44.7 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 6.6 |
16 year Education | 26.3 | 57.9 | 0 | 5.3 | 10.5 |
Table 8: Educational impact on favorite party (in percentages).
From the above table it is deduced that education has a great influence on the satisfaction level of the Sialkot’s people. People with metric or less are tend to be more satisfied rather than people who are more educated. The overall level of satisfaction is same as in Table 7.
It is also seen that satisfaction is inversely proportional to the level of education i.e. as public gets more exposure they are less happy with the current Govt (Figure 5). From the Tables 8 and 9 a general behavior of voter’s is assessed and by the result it is concluded that the educated class of the city is seemed to be affiliated to PTI and less contend with the Governance of PML-N as seen Figure 6.
Education | Satisfaction | |
---|---|---|
Yes | No | |
Less than Metric | 58.7 | 41.3 |
Metric | 54.1 | 45.9 |
Intermediate | 46.2 | 53.8 |
14 year Education | 43.4 | 56.6 |
16 year Education | 10.5 | 89.5 |
Overall Satisfaction | 51.5 | 48.5 |
Table 9: Contention of public from PML-N Govt. with regard to education (in percentages).
The reliability of data is attested using the value of Cronbach's Alpha. It is concluded that PML-N still holds the strongest position in Sialkot, Punjab, Pakistan, in spite of serious political scandals and powerful opposition. However, with rise of educational status a parallel fall in-fame of PML-N is expected which may result in a turnover favoring the new rising political party PTI. Changing the history and records of last 10 General Elections from Years 1970-2013, nevertheless these statistics may vary if the sample and constraints changes.