Journal of Political Sciences & Public Affairs

Journal of Political Sciences & Public Affairs
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Research Article - (2018) Volume 6, Issue 4

Statistical Likelihoods of Sialkot for General Elections 2018

Choudri M* and Noreen F
University of Sialkot, Sialkot, Punjab, Pakistan
*Corresponding Author: Choudri M, University of Sialkot, Sialkot, Punjab, Pakistan Email:

Abstract

Elections are a social phenomenon that enables the society to promote good leadership which is an important dynamic process that reflects the credibility and validity of political agendas. The motive of this evaluation is to present with a preassessment on the political situation of Sialkot city for the General Elections 2018. Past statistical profile reveals the prolonged domination of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) throughout the series of past few elections, but the momentous development of Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) is considered to be defaming the former. Facts and figures of political ground of Sialkot have been collected and systematically organized by use of valid Statistical approaches of higher confidence level. A precisely structured questionnaire containing characteristic and confined ten questions regarding political choices was circulated within the different Union Councils for collecting data of subset of 5700 people. Data was manipulated using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) and it came out to be reliable with the value 0.703 of Cronbach's Alpha. The overall results indicates preference of people to PMLN 12.1% more than as compared to PTI, only few Union Councils (UC) such as Model Town, Mubarak Pura, Rung Pura, Haji Pura, Talwara-Mughlan and Bonkin shows increased drift of 3.4%, 6.8%, 4.7%, 6.3%, 36.8% and 27.8% respectively to PTI in contrast to PML-N and the study also suggests that the literates of the community shows the rising trend towards PTI.

Keywords: Dynamic; Political state; National assembly; Provisional assembly; Union councils

Introduction

An election is a process in which people vote to choose a person or group of people to hold an official position. Nations are awarded with the sign of democracy and attribute of the freedom by acknowledging their opinion in selection of major parties and authorities at significant positions of country [1]. Democratic nations run for the kind of Govt. that will safeguard all their interests. Therefore, the elected leaders have a responsibility of ensuring that the country is run in the most efficient way which brings about prosperity [2]. British inaugurated the election system in the beginning of 1900s by introducing the seats in legislative assemblies of India after invading the southern part of Asia in 19th century [3]. After the independence both the countries i.e. Pakistan (East and West) and India propagated the system initiated by British rule [4].

There are several types of elections e.g. Presidential [5], parliamentary election on [6] high Govt. level or private and local body election for authorities and other leadership positions. Education systems also apply election decision-making to provide equal opportunities to express their opinions for the students. There are some elections make decision based over the majority, few require agreement from all the participants, most common in cases where a number of voters do not exceed ten people respectively.

Modern elections have greatly contributed to the development of new demographic and social sub-subject that deals with the analysis of the logic of various social communities in their decision-making process and preferences creation.

Election is decision-making process rooted in ancient Greece and Rome. It serves as the major mechanism for choice of Emperors and other leading figures in the history. Since approximately 508 B.C., Ancient Greece seems to have implemented the earliest form of democracy. Each year the male land owner voters were asked to vote for most wanted political leader or "candidates" they to be exiled for the next ten years. If any "candidate" received more than 6,000 votes than the one with the largest number was exiled. If no politician received 6,000 votes then they all remained. Since voters were only male land owners, although the number of voters was small. The rules that apply to eligible voters has changed dramatically since 1776, when it was pronounced although all men are created equally, but that equality only applied to some. Only white men over the age of 21 were allowed to vote when America was young [7]. Modern election systems in different countries vary in minor aspects, but in the majority of cases they provide a choice or even make it a requirement for each adult citizen of the country to vote for one or another candidate [8]. Likewise Pakistan’s political sketch has seen certain and uncertain drags during these past 71 years of its independence. Total of 10 General Elections at the Federal level have been held from 1970s till 2013 producing tremendous changes in economic and social life of Pakistan. A lot of predication on political situations is made on statistical grounds [9]. The motive of this study circulates around assessment of political status of different parties within the city of Sialkot [10].

Methodology

A pilot study [11] was conducted on the total of 5700 samples selected through cluster sampling to assess the political aspect in the city of Sialkot, for the approaching elections of 2018. An administrative revolution has been observed in the country due to the emergence of PTI as a significant party in the elections of 2013 [12]. The following result enlightens on the general people’s perspective from different Union Councils (UC) towards the upcoming elections. Names of Union Councils taken into account are as follows: (Tables 1-3).

Sr. No. General Election(s) Date of Conduction Major Parties Winning party
National Assembly (NA) Provincial Assembly (PP)
1 1970 7 Dec. 1970 17 Dec.1970 Awami League+ PPP PDP Awami League(east), PPP(west)
2 1977 07-Mar-77 07-Mar-77 PML-Qayyum PNA++ PPP PPP
3 1985 25 Feb. 1985 28 Feb. 1985 Non-Party Elections+++ [10] General Zia-ul-Haq
4 1988* 16 Nov.1988 19 Nov. 1988 Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI) PPP PPP
5 1990 24 Nov. 1990 27 Nov. 1990 IJI PPP/PDA Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI)
6 1993 6 Oct. 1993 9 Oct. 1993 PML(N) PPP PPP
7 1997** 03-Feb-97 03-Feb-97 PML(N) PPP PML(N)
8 2002*** 10 Oct. 2002 10 Oct. 2002 PML(N) PPP PML(Q) PML(Q)
9 2008 18 Feb. 2008 18 Feb. 2008 PML(N) PPP PPP
10 2013**** 11-May-13 11-May-13 PML(N) PTI PPP PML(N)

+Awami League was the leading party in East Pakistan, winning in NA by majority, in the elections of 1970.
++PNA abbreviated as Pakistan National Alliance was composed of nine political parties.
+++Elections were held without any major parties under the pressure of MRD (Movement for the Restoration of Democracy) which led as a platform for many new politicians without any formal background of politics to enter NA and PP.
*Decline turnout of voters of about 42.7% was observed from the previous elections.
**For the first time National and Provincial Assembly Elections were held on same date. PTI was formed a year before by Imran Khan and participated in the elections (1997) for the first time.
***Voter’s population was increased due to reduction in voter’s age from 18 onwards and seats were increased in same ratio from 207 to 272.
****Total of six political parties emerged on the front foot of these elections namely as MQM, ANP, PML and the three mentioned above.

Table 1: Election dates of National Assembly and Provincial Assembly from Years 1970-2013.

Sr. No. Year of General Elections Total Seats Seats Contribute by Punjab Party with Highest Posts Party with 2nd Highest Posts Party with 3rd Highest Posts Party with 4th Highest Posts Party with 5th Highest Posts
1 1970 300 62 PPP CML CVML QML JUP
2 1977 200 115 PPP PNA Others Independent
3 1985 Transition from Material Law to “ Oversight by Military’’
4 1988 206 115 PPP/PDA PML(N)/IJI Independent All others
5 1990 204 115 PML(N)/IJI PPP Independent All others
6 1993 206 116 PML(N) PPP Independent PML (others)
7 1997 206 115 PML(N) Independent
8 2002 272 150 PML(Q) PPP PML(N)/Independent/All others
9 2008 271 150 PML(N) PPP PML(Q) Independent All others
10 2013 262 148 PML(N) Independent PTI All others PML

Table 2: Ranking of Political Parties in Punjab from Years 1970-2013.

Sr. No. General Election National Assembly Seat Area Leading Party Overall Result Leading Minister Votes Runner up Party Runner up Minister
1 1970 NW-74 Sialkot-I PPP PPP Mian Masood Ahmad 93,736 MJUP M. Alam
NW-75 Sialkot-II PPP   Molana Kausar Niazi 96,132 MJUP M. Ahmad
NW-76 Sialkot-III PPP   Ch. Nasarullah Khan 83,266 MJUP Abdul Wahid
NW-77 Sialkot-IV PPP   Malik M. Suleman, Adv 23,542 MJUP Ch. Abdul Rahim
NW-78 Sialkot-V PPP   Ch. Sultan Ahmad Cheema 82,609 MJUP M. Saeed
2 1977 NA-104 Sialkot-I PPP PPP Qazi Zakauddin 67,088 PNA Kh. M. Sardar
NA-105 Sialkot-II PPP Mian Masood Ahmad 83,859 PNA Ch. Nasiruddin
NA-106 Sialkot-III PPP Ch. Sultan Ahmad 73,648 PNA Mazoor Ahmad
NA-107 Sialkot-IV PPP Kausar Niazi 78,805 PNA Asadullah Khan Bajwa
NA-108 Sialkot-V PPP Hamid Nawaz Khan 90,775 PNA Kh. M. Iqbal Butt
3 1985 NA-109 Sialkot-VI PPP   Ghulam Sarwar Khan, Adv 68,342 PNA Barak Allah Khan
NA-110 Sialkot-VII PPP Anwar Aziz Ch 1,02,334 PNA M. Salman
NA-104 Sialkot-I PML-N Khawaja M. Safdar 41,987   Naeem-ur-Rehman
NA-105 Sialkot-II PML-Q Ch. Amir Hussain 23,415   M. Rashid Akhtar
NA-106 Sialkot-III PPP Muhammad Akram Khan 43,971   Nazir Ahmad Khan
NA-107 Sialkot-IV   Sahibzada Prof. M. Ahmad 55,626   Abdul Sattar
NA-108 Sialkot-V PPP Ch. M. Sarwar Khan 56,368   Ch. M. Akbar Kahloon
4 1988 NA-109 Sialkot-VI PML-N IJI Ch. Shafaat Ahmad Khan 43,240   Anwar-ul-Haq Ch.
NA-110 Sialkot-VII PPP Mr. Anwar Aziz chaudhr 58,538   M. Idrees Taj
NA-85 Sialkot-I IJI Mian Muhamamd Shafi 59902 PPP Akhtar Javed Pirzada
NA-86 Sialkot-II IJI Amir Hussain 58545 PPP Faiz Ahmad
NA-87 Sialkot-III PPP Khurshid Alam 52676 IJI Nazir Ahmad Khan
NA-88 Sialkot-IV IJI Mian M. Nawaz Sharif 45271 PDP Ch. Asdullah Hajwa
NA-89 Sialkot-V PPP Alhaj Hamid Nawaz Khan 32201 IJI Ch. M. Sarwar Khan
5 1990 NA-90 Sialkot-VI IJI IJI Chaudhary Anwar ul Haq 43901 PPP Ghulam Sarwar Khan
NA-91 Sialkot-VII IJI Chaudhary Anwar Aziz 31621 PPP Muhammad Idress Taj
NA-85 Sialkot-I IJI Mian Muhammad Shafi 59515 PDA Mian Masud Ahmad
NA-86 Sialkot-II IJI Chaudhary Ameer Hussain 67731 PDA Mian M.Rasheed Akhtar
NA-87 Sialkot-III IJI Nazir Ahmad Khan 81137 PDA Javaid Ghuman
NA-88 Sialkot-IV IJI Chaudhary Abdul Sattar 72764 PDA Muhammad Ahmad
NA-89 Sialkot-V IJI Ch. M. Sarwar Khan 67966 PDA Ch. Muhammad Akhtar
NA-90 Sialkot-VI IJI Ghulam Mustafa 60982 PDA Ch. Shafayat Ahmad
NA-91 Sialkot-VII IJI Muhammad Ishfaq Taj Uncontentested
6 1993 NA-85 Sialkot-I PML-N   Kh. M. Asif 66,336 PPP Mian M. Shafi
NA-86 Sialkot-II PML-J Ch. Akhtar Ali 69,698 PML-N Amir Hussain
NA-87 Sialkot-III PML-N Syed Iftikhar-ul-Hassan 69,559 PPP Ijaz Ahmad Cheema
NA-88 Sialkot-IV PML-J Ch. Abdul Sattar 59,948 PML-N Ch. Sikhandar Hayat
NA-89  Sialkot-cum-Narowal PML-N Ch. M. Sarwar Khan 59,622 PPP Zahid Hamid
7 1997 NA-85 Sialkot-I PML-N PML-N Kh. M. Asif 64,394 PPP M. Naeem-ur-Rehman
NA-86 Sialkot-I PML-N Amir Hussain 72,370 PML-J Khush Akhtar Subhani
NA-87 Sialkot-I PML-N Syed Iftikhar-ul-Hassan Shah 71,321 PPP Ijaz Ahmad Cheema
8 2002 NA-88 Sialkot-I PML-N PML-Q Ch. Sikandar Hayat Malhi 66,203 PML-J Ch. Abdul Sattar
NA-89 Sialkot-cum-Narowal PML-N Ch. M. Sarwar Khan 59,340 PPP M. Akbar Kahloon
NA-110 Sialkot-I PMLN Khawaja Muhammad Aasif 42700 PMLQ Mian Muhammad Riaz
NA-111 Sialkot-II PMLQ Ch. Ameer Hussain 52300 PMLN Idrees Ahmed Bajwa
NA-112 Sialkot-III PMLQ Umer Ahmed Ghumman 68400 PMLN Syed Murtaza Ameen
9 2008 NA-113 Sialkot-IV PMLQ PML-N Ali Asjad Malhi 50600 PPP Col. R. Sultan Sikandar
NA-114 Sialkot-V PMLQ Zahid Ahmed Khan 73500 PPP Ghulam Abbas
NA-110 Sialkot-I PMLN Khawaja Muhammad Aasif 73000 PPP Zahid Pervez
NA-111 Sialkot-II PPP Dr. Firdous Aashiq Awan 78900 PMLQ Ch. Ameer Hussain
NA-112 Sialkot-III PMLN Rana Abdul Sattar 92100 PMLQ Ch. Shujaat Huissain
NA-113 Sialkot-IV PMLN Syed Murtaza Amin 77800 PMLQ Ali Asjad Malhi
NA-114 Sialkot-V PMLN Zahid Hamid 62300 PMLQ Ch. Abdul Sattar
10 2013 NA-110 Sialkot-I PMLN PML-N Khawaja Muhammad Aasif 92800 PTI Muhammad Usman Daar
NA-111 Sialkot-II PMLN Ch. Armagan Subhani 137400 PPP Dr. Firdous Asshiq Awan
NA-112 Sialkot-III PMLN Rana Shamim Khan 129500 PTI Salma Saif Cheema
NA-113 Sialkot-IV PMLN Syed Iftikhar Ul Hassan 118200 PTI Mirza Abdul Qayyum
NA-114 Sialkot-V PMLN Zahid Hamid 132600 Independent Ghulam Abbas

Table 3: Ranking of Political Parties in Sialkot from Years 1970-2013.

• Gohat Pur,

• Pakka Ghara,

• Mubarak Pura,

• Bonkin,

• Pasrur,

• Haji Pura,

• Kotli Behram,

• Ahmed-Pura,

• Shah-Syeda,

• Kareem Pura,

• Fattah Garh,

• Rung Pura,

• Pura-Hiran,

• Model Town,

• Water works,

• Adda Pasruriyan,

• Imam Sahab,

• 25-Harar,

• Talwara-Mughlan.

The evaluation is made using the most updated edition of SPSS. Table 4 provides overall frequency percentages of the succeeding questions:

  Political Party Percentage
Which political party are you most inclined to? PML-N 48.4
PTI 36.3
PPP 1.9
JI 4.6
Others 8.8
Total 100
 Name of the Members Percentage
Who is your favorite candidate from National Assembly? Kh. Asif 47
Usman Dar 37.4
Malik Zarar 2.3
Others 13.3
Total 100
Who is your favorite candidate from Provisional Assembly (PP-36)? Ch. Akram 40.9
Ch.Ihlaq/Omar Meyer 36.7
Arshad Baggo 3.2
Others 19.3
Total 100
Who is your favorite candidate from Provisional Assembly (PP-37)? Kh. Asif/Manshaullah Butt 43.3
Mehar Ashiq Hussain 33.7
Dr. Tahir Mehmood 3.5
Others 19.5
Total 100
 Response Percentage
Are you satisfied with the performance of previous elected party? Yes 51.4
No 48.4
Total 100

Table 4: Overall Frequency percentage.

Q1: Which political party are you most inclined to?

Q2: Who is your favorite candidate from National Assembly?

Q3: Who is your favorite candidate from Provisional Assembly (PP-36)?

Q4: Who is your favorite candidate from Provisional Assembly (PP-37)?

Q5: Are you satisfied with the performance of previous elected party

Results and Discussion

Punjab has always served as a hub for PML-N Govt. according to results of Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) as represented in reference Table 2 but because of the scandal of notorious PANAMA corruptions case [11] involving most prominent political leaders including Sharif family members [12] along with the disqualification of the supreme candidate of PML-N i.e. Khawaja Muhammad Asif , who have been a significant political figure from many of years of the ruling party depicted in results of general elections of ECP as represented in reference Table 3, might be anticipated equally to the success of PTI as it might aid as a turnover [13]. The basic motive of this study is to assess the position of the current ruling party in the city, Sialkot as it is assumed that PTI is imposing threat to their reign in this area (Figure 1).

political-sciences-public-affairs-parties

Figure 1: Ratio of seats among different parties in last 10 General Elections.

The given below analysis in Table 5 is made with respect to different Union Councils with regard to the following questions within the premises of Sialkot. 19 Union Councils are discussed in the study.

Union Council Q1 Political Party %age  Q2 Name of Candidate %age Q3 Satisfaction %age
Gohat Pur PML-N 44.2 Kh. Asif 48.1 Yes 54.9
PTI 36.5 Usman Dar 36.5 No 45.1
PPP 3.9 Malik Zarar 3.8
JI 2 Others 9.8
Others 11.8
Kareem Pura Q1 PML-N 47.1 Q2 Kh. Asif 47.1 Q3 Yes 47.1
PTI 23.5 Usman Dar 23.5 No 52.9
PPP 11.8 Malik Zarar 5.9
JI 5.9 Others 23.5
Others 11.8
Pakka Ghara Q1 PML-N 71 Q2 Kh. Asif 71.1 Q3 Yes 80.6
PTI 22.6 Usman Dar 22.5 No 19.4
PPP 0 Malik Zarar 3.3
JI 3.2 Others 3.1
Others 3.2
Fattah Garh Q1 PML-N 46.7 Q2 Kh. Asif 46.7 Q3 Yes 46.7
PTI 33.3 Usman Dar 36.7 No 53.3
PPP 3.3 Malik Zarar 0
JI 0 Others 3.1
Others 16.7
Mubarak Pura Q1 PML-N 43.2 Q2 Kh. Asif 38.6 Q3 Yes 43
PTI 50 Usman Dar 54.5 No 56.8
PPP 0 Malik Zarar 0
JI 6.8 Others 6.8
Others 0
Rung Pura Q1 PML-N 42.9 Q2 Kh. Asif 47.6 Q3 Yes 36.7
PTI 47.6 Usman Dar 38.1 No 63.3
PPP 4.8 Malik Zarar 4.8
JI 4.8 Others 9.5
Others 0
Bonkin Q1 PML-N 27.8 Q2 Kh. Asif 27.8 Q3 Yes 41.7
PTI 55.6 Usman Dar 61.1 No 58.3
PPP 0 Malik Zarar 0
JI 9.7 Others 11.1
Others 6.5
Pura-Hiran Q1 PML-N 48 Q2 Kh. Asif 48 Q3 Yes 64
PTI 24 Usman Dar 20 No 36
PPP 0 Malik Zarar 4
JI 0 Others 28
Others 28
Model Town Q1 PML-N 43.3 Q2 Kh. Asif 46.7 Q3 Yes 33.3
PTI 46.7 Usman Dar 50 No 66.7
PPP 0 Malik Zarar 0
JI 3.3 Others 3.3
Others 6.7
Water Works Q1 PML-N 45.5 Q2 Kh. Asif 45.5 Q3 Yes 36.4
PTI 27.3 Usman Dar 18.2 No 63.6
PPP 9.1 Malik Zarar 0
JI 0 Others 36.4
Others 18.2
Pasrur Q1 PML-N 64 Q2 Kh. Asif 68 Q3 Yes 80
PTI 28 Usman Dar 20 No 20
PPP 4 Malik Zarar 4
JI 0 Others 8
Others 4
Adda Pasruriyan Q1 PML-N 48.1 Q2 Kh. Asif 48.1 Q3 Yes 51.9
PTI 40.7 Usman Dar 37 No 48.1
PPP 3.7 Malik Zarar 3.7
JI 3.7 Others 11.1
Others 3.7
Haji Pura Q1 PML-N 37.5 Q2 Kh. Asif 21.9 Q3 Yes 28.1
PTI 43.8 Usman Dar 50 No 71.9
PPP 0 Malik Zarar 6.3
JI 0 Others 21.9
Others 18.8
Imam Sahab Q1 PML-N 48.4 Q2 Kh. Asif 45.2 Q3 Yes 41.9
PTI 41.9 Usman Dar 48.4 No 58.1
PPP 0 Malik Zarar 0
JI 3.2 Others 6.5
Others 6.5
Kotli Behram Q1 PML-N 62.1 Q2 Kh. Asif 58.6 Q3 Yes 65.5
PTI 20.7 Usman Dar 20.7 No 34.5
PPP 0 Malik Zarar 0
JI 0 Others 20.7
Others 17.2
25-Harar Q1 PML-N 55.6 Q2 Kh. Asif 48.1 Q3 Yes 55.6
PTI 14.8 Usman Dar 18.5 No 44.4
PPP 0 Malik Zarar 3.7
JI 14.8 Others 29.6
Others 14.8
Ahmed-Pura Q1 PML-N 51.4 Q2 Kh. Asif 48.6 Q3 Yes 54.3
PTI 31.4 Usman Dar 34.3 No 45.7
PPP 0 Malik Zarar 0
JI 0 Others 17.1
Others 17.1
Muhammad-Pura Q1 PML-N 85 Q2 Kh. Asif 80 Q3 Yes 75
PTI 15 Usman Dar 20 No 25
PPP 0 Malik Zarar 0
JI 0 Others 0
Others 0
Shah-Syeda Q1 PML-N 55 Q2 Kh. Asif 55 Q3 Yes 55
PTI 20 Usman Dar 20 No 45
PPP 5 Malik Zarar 0
JI 5 Others 25
Others 15
Talwara-Mughlan Q1 PML-N 31.6 Q2 Kh. Asif 31.6 Q3 Yes 42.1
PTI 68.4 Usman Dar 68.4 No 57.9
PPP 0 Malik Zarar 0
JI 0 Others 0
Others 0

Table 5: Frequency Percentage for Different Union Councils (UC).

Q1: Which political party are you most inclined to?

Q2: Who is your favorite candidate from National Assembly?

Q3: Are you satisfied with the performance of previous elected party?

The Table 6 explicates the favorite political party among different age groups proceeded by its graph. It is observed that the total of 48.4% of voters from different age groups is more influenced by PML-N and that it exceeds PTI by 12.1% with this respect [14]. Graphical precision is given below (Figure 2).

Age Group Party Name
PML-N PTI PPP JI Others
18-33 49 40 0.7 3.7 6.7
34-48 45.9 31.2 4.5 6.4 12.1
49-63 49.4 34.9 2.4 2.4 10.8
>63 53.3 30 0.0 10 6.7
Total 48.4 36.3 1.9 4.6 8.8

Table 6: Relationship between age and favorite party (in percentages).

political-sciences-public-affairs-favorite

Figure 2: Relationship between age and favorite party.

From this study it is noticeable that from the sample an overall percentage of 51.5 are contented from the exercises done by the previous Govt. i.e. PML-N but it is also of concern that the margin between both levels (satisfactory and dissatisfactory) is only 3%. It is realized, from Tables 6 and 7 that age is not playing any role to deviate people from not casting vote to PML-N. The graphical representation of above table is as follows (Figure 3):

political-sciences-public-affairs-regard

Figure 3: Contention of public from PML-N Govt. with regard to age group.

Age Group Satisfaction
Yes No
18-33 51.7 48.3
34-48 51 49
49-63 52.4 47.6
>63 50 50
Overall Satisfaction 51.5 48.5

Table 7: Contention of public from PML-N Govt. with regard to age group (in percentages).

From the above Table 8 it is observed that education effects on the selection of a political party. Public with matriculation or less are more inclined towards PML-N whereas it is seemed that the educated society of the country is deviated to PTI whereas rest of the parties does not have much impact. The graphical representation for the above table is as follows (Figure 4):

Education Party Name
PML-N PTI PPP JI Others
Less than Metric 49.5 33.7 2 3.1 11.7
Metric 56.5 29 1.6 6.5 6.5
Intermediate 39.8 45.2 2.2 4.3 8.6
14 year Education 42.1 44.7 2.6 3.9 6.6
16 year Education 26.3 57.9 0 5.3 10.5

Table 8: Educational impact on favorite party (in percentages).

political-sciences-public-affairs-favorite

Figure 4: Educational impact on favorite party.

From the above table it is deduced that education has a great influence on the satisfaction level of the Sialkot’s people. People with metric or less are tend to be more satisfied rather than people who are more educated. The overall level of satisfaction is same as in Table 7.

It is also seen that satisfaction is inversely proportional to the level of education i.e. as public gets more exposure they are less happy with the current Govt (Figure 5). From the Tables 8 and 9 a general behavior of voter’s is assessed and by the result it is concluded that the educated class of the city is seemed to be affiliated to PTI and less contend with the Governance of PML-N as seen Figure 6.

political-sciences-public-affairs-education

Figure 5: Contention of public from PML-N Govt. with regard to education.

political-sciences-public-affairs-literate

Figure 6: Effects of Literate Public on PML-N and PTI.

Education Satisfaction
Yes No
Less than Metric 58.7 41.3
Metric 54.1 45.9
Intermediate 46.2 53.8
14 year Education 43.4 56.6
16 year Education 10.5 89.5
Overall Satisfaction 51.5 48.5

Table 9: Contention of public from PML-N Govt. with regard to education (in percentages).

Conclusion

The reliability of data is attested using the value of Cronbach's Alpha. It is concluded that PML-N still holds the strongest position in Sialkot, Punjab, Pakistan, in spite of serious political scandals and powerful opposition. However, with rise of educational status a parallel fall in-fame of PML-N is expected which may result in a turnover favoring the new rising political party PTI. Changing the history and records of last 10 General Elections from Years 1970-2013, nevertheless these statistics may vary if the sample and constraints changes.

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Citation: Choudri M, Noreen F (2018) Statistical Likelihoods of Sialkot for General Elections 2018. J Pol Sci Pub Aff 6: 347.

Copyright: © 2018 Choudri M, et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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